For those who are following the prediction on February 25, 2010, the pandemic reservoir now shows multiple instances of multiple encodings for 230I. Model adjustment and data transparency allowed a second set of detailed geographic predictions on 2010-08-09 that have also found traction.
The 230I bearing sequences meeting the prediction are documented in the detailed discussion on Vaccine Escape that demonstrates a 100% change rate in the pandemic influenza (pH1N1) reservoir at the critical HA genetics range between amino acid positions 186 and 248. 95% of the amino acid positions have notated revisions.
Expectations for the M230I polymorphism, that first came to our notice for zoonotic concern on the H5N1 human fatality cluster, have now been revised based on the most current public data. The GeneWurx RnR model approximates that HA 230I will appear in the PF11 RBS according to the following geographic probabilities.
- 20% probability in Mexico sampled by 2011-06-30.
- 55% probability in Mexico sampled by 2011-09-30.
- 10% or less probability of HA 230I conserving across PF11 by 2011-09-30.
- 17% probability of HA 230I conserving on one or more Hydrae by 2011-09-30.
These probabilities will be updated as additional data is made public. Transparency at this post-pandemic stage is essential to formulate viable responses for the risk groups. Release of sequences and clinical data of a finer detail and higher quantity will allow information-based decisions.
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