HA 166N Polymorphism Potential on pH1N1 Cross-Clade Background with Both 188T and 189T

Current trending indicates a reportable potential for the K166N polymorphism spreading on the Hemagglutinin of pH1N1. This change may enhance Vaccine Escape from the currently selected vaccine target candidate, CA/07 X181. 

The GeneWurx RnR model approximates that HA 166N may appear on a pH1N1 cross-clade background carrying both 188T and 189T, according to the following probabilities.

• 28% probability sampled by 2013-04-30.
• 52% probability sampled by 2013-09-30.

If the HA 166N does appear on a cross-clade background having both 188T and 189T, hospitalisation of subjects under 12 years of age is a potential scenario.

These probabilities will be updated as additional data is made public.  Transparency at this post-pandemic stage is essential to formulate viable responses for the risk groups.  Release of sequences and clinical data of a finer detail and higher quantity will allow information-based decisions.

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