225E Expectation in the Ukraine

PF11 SNP geographic analysis suggests that the Ukraine cases in the next two weeks may show a very similar genetic pattern to South America in August and the Mediterranean and Adriatic FlightPath in the past 8 weeks. 

If the trend toward a higher infectivity of medical personnel continues as reported today of 687 doctors and 1,500 young specialists being ill, we would expect a higher death count in the coming days.  Between 0.5% and 1.3% of all doctors in the country are ill (by region).  Higher transmissibility is certain.

If a database of 100 sequences were to exist on the Ukraine, accurately cataloging a cross-reference of regions over 14 days of recent death and recovery cases, including major cities, rough expectations would indicate:

HA

225E
in moderate concentration (95% probability) with 206T

206T/225E/300S triplet
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (75% probability)

2E/206T/225E/298V quad combo
potential for appearance in very low count (1 to 2 sequences) (>25% probability)

2E/206T/225G/298V quad combo
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (<10% probability)

225G
potential, but certainly not widespread under current clinical reports (75% probability) with 206T

2E/206S/296H triplet
in low concentration (95% probability)

377K
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (25% probability)

270T
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (7% probability)

261V
potential for appearance in very low count (1 to 3 sequences) (>25% probability)

212 movement
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (7% probability)

208K
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (33% probability)

188/189/190 movement
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (>50% probability)

158E
potential for appearance in very low count (1 to 3 sequences) (>25% probability)

100N
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (>25% probability)

35I
potential for appearance in moderate count (<20% probability)

NA

106I, 248N pairing
potential in very low count (<20% probability)

106I, 248N, 286G triplet
potential for introduction (7% probability until the 8th week of the flashfire)

Please visit GeneWurx.com for insight into the latest published studies.

SingaporeTLL10 HA demonstrates 3 H5N1 amino acids: 206T, 226R and 261V

A/Singapore/TLL10, sample 2009-07-27, is a first on the PF11 background.

SingTLL10 is the first on PF11 to carry 261V, though movement at that position has been documented in Italy51 and Italy53 with 261G and a downstream 263D entered PF11 with Tomsk01 and then continued with 3 Thai sequences (ThaiCU-H9, ThaiCU-B938, ThaiCU-H276).

261V is wild type for H5N1 including Anhui02 that carries all three of the amino acid changes mentioned here for SingTLL10:

• 206T
• 226R
• 261V

H5N1 Anhui02 is a potential donor for 296H that seems to track primarily to 206T bearing strains.

This expansion deeper into Southern Asia with 226R brings the number of sequences bearing the H5N1 match into double digits.  RBD changes matching H5N1 demand scrutiny.  For background, please read an earlier 226R Study.

Please visit GeneWurx.com for insight into the latest published studies.