sH3N2 HA 140K Antigen Polymorphism Potential in Europe and North America

Current trending indicates a reportable potential for the I140K polymorphism spreading on the Hemagglutinin of sH3N2. This Antigenic Domain A change may enhance Vaccine Escape from the currently selected vaccine target, Victoria361 X-217.

The GeneWurx RnR model approximates that HA I140K will appear in sH3N2 Northern Hemisphere Seasons 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 according to the following probabilities.

  • 60% probability in either Europe or North America sampled by 2013-12-31.
  • 38% probability in both Europe and North America sampled by 2013-12-31.
  • 05% or less probability of HA 140K conserving across sH3N2 by 2013-12-31.
  • 12% or less probability of HA 140K conserving on one Hydra by 2013-12-31.

These probabilities will be updated as additional data is made public.  Transparency at this High Mortality stage is essential to formulate viable responses for the risk groups.  Release of sequences and clinical data of a finer detail and higher quantity will allow information-based decisions.

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