Texas HA 225 Receptor Binding Variance Potential

Sequences discussed in this analysis are variously stored publicly at GenBank and at GISAID. We gratefully acknowledge the authors, originating and submitting laboratories of the sequences from GenBank and from GISAID’s EpiFlu™ Database on which this research is based.

Publish Date : 2013-12-25
Last Update : 2013-12-25

Current trending indicates a reportable potential for HA 225 Receptor Binding Variance spreading into Texas on the Hemagglutinin of pH1N1. This change may enhance Vaccine Escape from the currently selected vaccine target candidate, CA/07 X181. 

The GeneWurx RnR model approximates that Receptor Binding Variance at HA 225 may spread into Texas sampled from a severe or fatal case on a pH1N1 background carrying either 225N or 225G, according to the following probabilities.

• 60% probability sampled by 2014-02-01 of HA 225N.
• 78% probability sampled by 2014-02-01 of either HA 225N or HA 225G.

• 01% probability sampled by 2014-06-30 of HA 225N conserving across pH1N1.
• 04% probability sampled by 2014-06-30 of HA 225N conserving on one Hydra.
• 16% probability sampled by 2014-06-30 of HA 225N persisting sporadically on one Hydra.

These outcomes are predicated on properly collected and handled specimen material, at a minimum, from broncho-alveolar lavage and / or from lung tissue at autopsy.  Deep sequencing is indicated for these low-trace, quasi-species situations. We are fully aware that these types of collections may be withheld from public issue.  Therefore, this prediction may fail to be validated due to that intentional censoring of public health data.

As we are concerned that no valid specimen may be properly collected, sequenced and made available to researchers, we provide a GeneWurx projection of the highest ranking clinical severity combination of Hemagglutinin and Neuraminidase segments.  HA 225N is the RBS polymorphism that we consider of gravest concern to the Texas citizens at the moment; although, the projected Neuraminidase is a high probability potentiator of clinical morbidity.

Avoidance of Influenza may be a lifesaving behaviour this winter.

HA Projection

. . . . . . . . 21 Polymorphisms (9 Amino and 12 Silent)
. . . . . . . . syn77S (AGt),
. . . . . . . . 100N,
. . . . . . . . syn141H (CAc),
. . . . . . . . 166Q,
. . . . . . . . syn179L (CTg),
. . . . . . . . 188T,
. . . . . . . . 225N,
. . . . . . . . 259T,
. . . . . . . . 286E,
. . . . . . . . syn308K (AAg),
. . . . . . . . syn333F (TTc),
. . . . . . . . syn338G (GGc),
. . . . . . . . syn372Q (CAa),
. . . . . . . . 377K,
. . . . . . . . syn383N (AAc),
. . . . . . . . syn396V (GTg),
. . . . . . . . syn413K (AAg),
. . . . . . . . syn448L (TTg),
. . . . . . . . 454N,
. . . . . . . . 502K,
. . . . . . . . syn537S (AGc))

NA Projection

. . . . . . . . 16 Polymorphisms (10 Amino and 6 Silent)
. . . . . . . . 40V
. . . . . . . . 44S,
. . . . . . . . syn77G (GGg),
. . . . . . . . 79P,
. . . . . . . . 106V,
. . . . . . . . 108V,
. . . . . . . . 199N,
. . . . . . . . 200S,
. . . . . . . . 222D,
. . . . . . . . syn240T (ACc),
. . . . . . . . 241I,
. . . . . . . . 369K,
. . . . . . . . syn377P (CCa),
. . . . . . . . syn378N (AAt),
. . . . . . . . syn439S (AGt),
. . . . . . . . syn452T (ACc))

Additional revisions may compound onto these segments.  HA 225G will variously arise on this same combination given certain collection and passage strategies (E3). CrossClade revision may occur under particular passage strategies and / or plague purifications.

Due to message management and information sparsity, conclusions on clinical progressions may not be finalised at this time.  However, present clinical reports tend toward the suggestion that in all but exceptional cases, patients infected with this background will experience severe to fatal illness.

The pH1N1 reservoir has currently seeded genetic material for this background throughout North America including on TamiFlu Resistant strains.  This genetic bed is positioned to become widely TamiFlu Resistant during the 2013-2014 season in addition to using these Receptor Binding Site polymorphisms to manifest flashfires of High-CFR intensity in North American geographic foci.

These probabilities will be updated as additional data is made public.  Transparency at this post-pandemic stage is essential to formulate viable responses for the risk groups.  Release of sequences and clinical data of a finer detail and higher quantity will allow information-based decisions.

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