2011-03-28

Scandinavia Accumulates Superset on Emergent 188T Background

Sequences discussed in this analysis are variously stored publicly at GenBank and at GISAID. We gratefully acknowledge the authors, originating and submitting laboratories of the sequences from GenBank and from GISAID’s EpiFlu™ Database on which this research is based. A GISAID-generated list is detailed in a linked spreadsheet for completeness in citation.

Last Updated
2011-03-29

On 2011-03-20, the Statens Serum Institut of Copenhagen, Denmark published 6 pH1N1 sequences at GenBank sampled in a time period spanning approximately 3 weeks from late December 2010 until mid January 2011. Five of the six HA sequences demonstrate the 188T of the first pH1N1 emergent nucleotide coding having a second base revision (AcT) and two of those Denmark 188T sequences additionally carry HA 225G.

Denmark120_2010_12_20 and Denmark20_2011_01_04 with 188T and 225G demonstrate ongoing transmission of a template having 6 revisions (100N, syn179L, 188T, syn338G, syn448L, 454N) that congealed during November and December across published cases in at least nine American states and in severe and fatal UK cases. The backgrounds with 188T have exhibited experimentally and practically determined Vaccine Escape, as have backgrounds carrying 225G individually. The final silent revision at HA 448L on this particular 188T template appears to correlate with RBD revisions (190G, 221L, 224K) and to revisions at known Vaccine Escape amino acid positions (158E, 159D, 188T (AcT), 225G).



A potentially related, contemporary sequence from Sweden was sampled one day after Denmark120_2010_12_20SwedenHalmstad1_23F_2010_12_21, from the adjacent European geography, is the first published on this 188T background to carry HA 230I.  The Halmstad sequence also revised at a known Vaccine Escape position to 159K.  As the 188T bearing sub-clades represent over 50% of all GISAID-published, human pH1N1 sequences between October 2010 and March 2011, the "swl" lineage appears to have widespread 188T seeding that is attractant to additional polymorphic accommodation from zoonotic sources.

Though Scandinavia is now the only published geography with the polymorphic superset of 159K, 188T, 225G and 230I on similar backgrounds, GeneWurx analysis suggests that a signal with 188T, 225G and 230I has reportable probability in Scandinavia and several other regions worldwide.  Consideration must be given to this potential template (188T, 225G, 230I) also carrying a revision from aa156 to aa159.  In a parallel, transmitting sub-clade, 189T, 225G and 230I show potential for convergence and / or expansion with 165N and / or 158E.

Polymorphism jumping appears to be occurring bi-directionally between the transmitting 189T sub-clade and the emergent 188T sub-clades.

. . . . Denmark120_2010_12_20 (
. . . . . . . . HA truncated before aa1,
. . . . . . . . 100N,
. . . . . . . . syn179L (CTg),
. . . . . . . . 188T [SwedenHalmstad1_23F_2010_12_21
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 100N, 159K, 230I,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . syn338G, 377K,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 454N, syn537S],
. . . . . . . . 225G mix wt,
. . . . . . . . syn338G,
. . . . . . . . 377K,
. . . . . . . . syn448L [UKEngland4940476_2010_12_severe
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 100N, syn179L, 188T,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225G, syn338G, 377K, 454N,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . UKEngland4880378_2010_12_severe
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 100N, syn179L, 188T,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225G, syn338G, 377K, 454N,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Kentucky09_2010_11_01
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 100N, 158E, syn179L, 188T,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225G, syn338G, 377K, 454N,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . UKEngland4640543_2010_11_f
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 100N, syn179L, 188T,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190G, syn338G, 377K, 454N,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . UKEngland4920303_2010_11_severe
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 100N, syn179L, 188T,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . syn338G, 377K, 454N,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . UKEngland142_2010_11_severe
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 100N, syn179L, 188T,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . syn338G, 377K, 454N,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . UKEngland126_2010_11
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 100N, syn179L, 188T,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221L, syn338G, 377K, 454N,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . UKEngland4860049_2010_11
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 0A, 100N, syn179L, 188T,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . syn210S, syn338G, 377K,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 454N, 528I,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Hawaii08_2010_04_12
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 159D, 269V,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 312R, 313K, 377K,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Yakutsk_EAV_2009_11_18
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with syn348V,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Yaroslavl_CHMV_2009_11_10_f
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 224K, 225G, syn348V, syn542S],
. . . . . . . . 454N)

. . . . Denmark20_2011_01_04 (
. . . . . . . . HA truncated before aa1,
. . . . . . . . 100N,
. . . . . . . . syn179L (CTg),
. . . . . . . . 188T [SwedenHalmstad1_23F_2010_12_21
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 100N, 159K, 230I,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . syn338G, 377K,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 454N, syn537S],
. . . . . . . . 225G mix wt,
. . . . . . . . syn338G,
. . . . . . . . 377K,
. . . . . . . . syn448L [UKEngland4940476_2010_12_severe
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 100N, syn179L, 188T,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225G, syn338G, 377K, 454N,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . UKEngland4880378_2010_12_severe
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 100N, syn179L, 188T,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225G, syn338G, 377K, 454N,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Kentucky09_2010_11_01
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 100N, 158E, syn179L, 188T,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225G, syn338G, 377K, 454N,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . UKEngland4640543_2010_11_f
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 100N, syn179L, 188T,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190G, syn338G, 377K, 454N,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . UKEngland4920303_2010_11_severe
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 100N, syn179L, 188T,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . syn338G, 377K, 454N,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . UKEngland142_2010_11_severe
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 100N, syn179L, 188T,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . syn338G, 377K, 454N,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . UKEngland126_2010_11
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 100N, syn179L, 188T,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221L, syn338G, 377K, 454N,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . UKEngland4860049_2010_11
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 0A, 100N, syn179L, 188T,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . syn210S, syn338G, 377K,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 454N, 528I,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Hawaii08_2010_04_12
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 159D, 269V,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 312R, 313K, 377K,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Yakutsk_EAV_2009_11_18
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with syn348V,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Yaroslavl_CHMV_2009_11_10_f
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 224K, 225G, syn348V, syn542S],
. . . . . . . . 454N,
. . . . . . . . syn541C)

Supporting Sequences

From GISAID database (GISAID Citation).

. . . . SwedenHalmstad1_23F_2010_12_21 (
. . . . . . . . 100N [Slovakia1625_56X_2010_03_30_xL
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 230I],
. . . . . . . . 159K [UKEngland4940476_2010_08
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 128D, 377K,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . NY3230_2010_01_25
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 100N, syn231N],
. . . . . . . . 188T,
. . . . . . . . 230I,
. . . . . . . . syn245F [RussiaBelgorod2_2010_03_15
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 158E, 225G, 230I & syn343G],
. . . . . . . . 280A [MXinDRE797_2010_TmX
. . . . . . . . . . . . . swIowa44837_1_2009_11_08_xL
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 156E, 225N, 230I & syn346G],
. . . . . . . . syn338G,
. . . . . . . . 377K,
. . . . . . . . 454N,
. . . . . . . . syn537S [UKEngland5040499_2010_12_f])

. . . . UKEngland142_2010_11_severe (
. . . . . . . . 100N,
. . . . . . . . syn179L (CTg),
. . . . . . . . 188T,
. . . . . . . . syn338G,
. . . . . . . . 377K,
. . . . . . . . syn448L,
. . . . . . . . 454N)

. . . . UKEngland126_2010_11 (
. . . . . . . . 100N,
. . . . . . . . syn179L (CTg),
. . . . . . . . 188T,
. . . . . . . . 221L,
. . . . . . . . syn338G,
. . . . . . . . 377K,
. . . . . . . . syn448L,
. . . . . . . . 454N)

. . . . UKEngland4860049_2010_11 (
. . . . . . . . 0A,
. . . . . . . . 100N,
. . . . . . . . syn179L (CTg),
. . . . . . . . 188T,
. . . . . . . . syn210S,
. . . . . . . . syn338G,
. . . . . . . . 377K,
. . . . . . . . syn448L,
. . . . . . . . 454N,
. . . . . . . . 528I)

. . . . Hawaii08_2010_04_12
. . . . . . . . 159D mix wt,
. . . . . . . . 269V,
. . . . . . . . syn288A,
. . . . . . . . 312R,
. . . . . . . . 313K,
. . . . . . . . 377K,
. . . . . . . . syn448L [England4940476_2010_12,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 100N, syn179L, 188T,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225G, syn338G, 377K, 454N,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Kentucky09_2010_11_01
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 100N, 158E, syn179L, 188T,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225G, syn338G, 377K, 454N,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . England4640543_2010_11_f
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 100N, syn179L, 188T,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190G, syn338G, 377K, 454N,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Yakutsk_EAV_2009_11_18
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with syn348V,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Yaroslavl_CHMV_2009_11_10_f
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 224K, 225G, syn348V, syn542S])



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2011-03-02

Vaccine Escape Signal 188T Takes Another Genetic Step and Transmits

On 2011-02-23 the National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID) of Japan submitted a small series of 8 sequences from Japan and South Korea. The 4 partial HA sequences originating from the Korean CDC include 2 from late 2010 carrying a novel, second-step 188T coding.

GeneWurx has discussed the relationship of the original zoonotic 188T change [H7N7 human fatality] and Immune / Vaccine Escape within the pH1N1 reservoir. This Korean novel third base revision (T->C) builds onto the earlier second base revision (G->C) that created the original 188T (AcT).

Step1 = AGT->AcT - From pH1N1 wild type to original pH1N1 188T
Step2 = AcT->Acc - From pH1N1 188T (AcT) to Korean alternate pH1N1 188T

This second step amendment creates an alternate codon (Acc) to the widely circulating (148 full signal sequences), documented Vaccine Escape 188T version (AcT) on a background similar to existing sub-clades.

Donors for the third base change required to create this alternate pH1N1 188T are found in H7N3 and H7N7, the same reservoirs that likely donated the second base for the original pH1N1 188T. The H7N7 reservoir carries the alternate codon (Acc) extensively in Avian species including the recent worldwide geographies of Egypt (2004-2006), Sweden (2005), Italy (2006) and Poland (2009). Of note, the alternate codon also appears to have been popular across Europe in Avian species at the beginning of the 20th century (1902-1927) within the H7N7 serotype and extensive in late 20th century Equine species with H7N7.

GeneWurx expects additional attraction of genetic data from animal based influenza serotypes like H3N8, H5N1, H7N3, H7N7 and H9N2 onto these backgrounds.

This novel revision is found in the adjacent provinces of Chungbuk and Gyeonggi demonstrating geographic spread in less than 3 weeks, suggesting transmissibility and fitness of the additional 188T coding. The unique pH1N1 coding for 188T signals continued viral genetic revision at a point already having an established Immune Escape and Vaccine Escape history (188T). The amino acid position 188 had previously come under selective pressure and successfully revised to evade the vaccines and the natural immunity. The viral strains appear to be revising at a rate higher than necessary according to the accepted concept of selection.

Each of the Korean pH1N1 sequences with the unique 188T codon displays markers related to currently circulating pH1N1 sub-clades carrying the original 188T coding; however, extensive additional rare polymorphisms are found on each of the Korean sequences under investigation though the HA is missing approximately 200 proteins from the 3’ end (truncated after amino acid position 348). Though the two Korean sequences share 5 polymorphisms (syn1A, 100N, 188T, syn271S and syn338G), the earlier of the two, Gyeonggi2623_2010_11_24, is more complex with 6 additional changes including a 158E mixture that has been previously related to Vaccine Escape.

The Chungbuk2826_2010_12_14 sequence from 3 weeks later carries 2 additional changes not found on the Gyeonggi pattern. Several of the rare polymorphisms from these two sequences are also found in animal influenza reservoirs [H3N8, H5N1, H9N2], a clear demonstration that the most current pH1N1 sequences show a human reservoir that is hyper-morphic and hyper-zoonotic at a time period when public health officials continue to assure citizens that the circulating flu is unchanged.

Nothing could be further from the Truth.


. . . . Chungbuk2826_2010_12_14 (
. . . . . . . . syn1A (GCc) [Georgia4573_2009_12_23],
. . . . . . . . syn31H (CAt) [31 GISAID],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [Conserved Asia],
. . . . . . . . 100N,
. . . . . . . . 173R [19 GISAID],
. . . . . . . . 188T (Acc) [H7N3, H7N7],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [Unique to PF11 Korea 2010 (2)],
. . . . . . . . syn271S (TCg) [OzDarwin43_2010_07_23
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 166N, syn239P,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CalifSD_INS105_2009_11_04
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with syn103E],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [swine HK 2001 with 100N, syn258F],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [swine Colorado 2001 (ATg)],
. . . . . . . . syn327I (ATc) mix wt [43 GISAID],
. . . . . . . . syn338G,
. . . . . . . . HA truncated after aa348)

. . . . Gyeonggi2623_2010_11_24 (
. . . . . . . . syn1A (GCc) [Georgia4573_2009_12_23],
. . . . . . . . 100N,
. . . . . . . . syn108L (TTa) [15 GISAID],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [US, US Military],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [Sri Lanka 2010, China],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [Canada, Europe, Abu Dhabi],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [swine Asia, swine US],
. . . . . . . . 158E mix wt,
. . . . . . . . syn175E [83 GISAID
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [Worldwide, primarily 2009],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [2010 Australia, Costa Rica, China Widespread],
. . . . . . . . 188T (Acc) [H7N3, H7N7],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [Unique to PF11 Korea 2010 (2)],
. . . . . . . . syn239P (CCa) [H3N8, H9N2],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [30 GISAID],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [Widespread US, US Military],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [Asia, Russia, Europe],
. . . . . . . . syn258F (TTt) [16 GISAID],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [US, US Military],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [South America],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [Japan, Russia, Europe],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [swine HK 2001],
. . . . . . . . syn271S (TCg) [OzDarwin43_2010_07_23
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 166N, syn239P,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CalifSD_INS105_2009_11_04
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with syn103E],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [swine HK 2001 with 100N, syn258F],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [swine Colorado 2001 (ATg)],
. . . . . . . . syn337A (GCa) [H5N1 Avian Japan 2007-2008],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [Unique to PF11],
. . . . . . . . syn338G,
. . . . . . . . HA truncated after aa348)






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