Influenza Flux Continues High-CFR Risk Period as PF11Ω Remains Distant

The PF11 reservoir remains within the same category as H5N1, Interferon-Deranging, Rapidly Replicating Virus (IDRRV), in our estimation. The Influenza Flux (zoonotic transition period) may be the prime driver in this categorisation for each subtype. Though High-CFR H5N1 and today’s PF11 reservoir fall into the same category based on genetic expression, one profound difference in PF11 does emerge, a particularly strong advantage for this virus.

PF11 began with several key portions of the genetic material for human fitness but remains distant from human fitness in general; the virus is most certainly still hobbled even while demonstrating destructive clinical effects in individual hosts. As a matter of record, the rate of trait-enhancing genetic acquisition is dramatically higher than in H5N1, contrary to the daily social messaging, “No Mutations” phraseology.

Perhaps this higher and very consistent rate of genetic acquisition in PF11 is due to the current distance from full human fitness?  The early foothold in partial human fitness within the reservoir remains bounded / limited by the continued shortcoming in achieving full human fitness.  The enhanced speed of acquisition may be driven by the intersection of two pandemic aspects, distance from full human fitness and the deep reservoir of donor candidates for human-fit traits.  Spark and Fuel.  Implementing a sub-category to IDRRV due to the special nature of this PF11 reservoir, IDRREAV¹, may establish useful language for further study.  Regardless of what this pandemic reservoir is called, the time period between today’s partial human fitness and the future’s fully human-fit and virulence-downrated viral emergence is mankind’s window of High-CFR danger.

Some have postulated that 1918 was 50/50 swine and human influenza genetics.  Knowledge cannot be attained to conclusively prove this bold idea because very little predecessor genetics is on record for comparison.  At this time, PF11 is genetically less than 15% human-fit by nucleotide count including the full human-based segment and the total count of potentially human-fit SNPs across the other seven gene segments.

If this viral reservoir is marching toward a 50/50 ratio as 1918 has been postulated, then today’s 1.6% to 5% CFRs may eventually be much higher than the 1918 Case Fatality Rate.  The achievement of an H5N1 CFR would entirely be conjecture at this time, but a doubling of the current PF11 median to a figure between 4% and 5% CFR is within educated consideration.  At the practical moment of PF11_Ω (PF11 Omega²), when the future dominant PF11 strain reaches the critical tipping point in the Influenza Flux where transmission is perfected and virulence peaks, a peaking CFR is a logical expectation.

We project that throughout the current Influenza Flux period prior to the critical mass of PF11_Ω, the Hydra Effect that our team has documented in the related gene studies will continue to be demonstrated with many transmissible and virulent heads (strains) developing and persisting. Eventually the post-Omega, PF11_>Ω, fully human-fit viral reservoir will coalesce, will downrate in virulence or will be replaced once the host population is depleted.

This viral reservoir progression is strikingly similar to the pattern our research team predicted 3 years ago for an emerging H5N1 pandemic, but for the fact that ΣPF11 has enhanced genetic acquisition rates demonstrating RNA gain from 5 or more Influenza serotypes.  Timing cannot be predicted with accuracy; however, the recombinations of trait-enhancing, human-fit SNPs are directly trackable and fungible as evidence of progression under this proposed framework of study.




¹ Interferon-Deranging, Rapidly Replicating, Enhanced Acquisition Virus (IDRREAV)
² Glossary Updates

ΣPF11
Sigma PF11.
In general, the PF11 Reservoir of genetic material.  Accumulation of all specimens trending to the established pandemic backgrounds.

PF11_β
PF11 Beta.
Today.  Current PF11 specimens. These strains have progressed beyond the initial Spring 2009 PF11 infections, yet continue to be only partially human-fit.

PF11_Ω
PF11 Omega.
A proposed future PF11 momentary state of peak high-transmissibility and high-virulence potentially correlating to the zenith of the High-CFR window for humans.

PF11_>Ω
PF11 Post-Omega.
A proposed future PF11 state occurring at some point after PF11_Ω, having a progressively downrated virulence and the potential for establishing a smaller set of dominant strains in the PF11 Reservoir, ΣPF11.

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