225E Expectation in the Ukraine

PF11 SNP geographic analysis suggests that the Ukraine cases in the next two weeks may show a very similar genetic pattern to South America in August and the Mediterranean and Adriatic FlightPath in the past 8 weeks. 

If the trend toward a higher infectivity of medical personnel continues as reported today of 687 doctors and 1,500 young specialists being ill, we would expect a higher death count in the coming days.  Between 0.5% and 1.3% of all doctors in the country are ill (by region).  Higher transmissibility is certain.

If a database of 100 sequences were to exist on the Ukraine, accurately cataloging a cross-reference of regions over 14 days of recent death and recovery cases, including major cities, rough expectations would indicate:

HA

225E
in moderate concentration (95% probability) with 206T

206T/225E/300S triplet
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (75% probability)

2E/206T/225E/298V quad combo
potential for appearance in very low count (1 to 2 sequences) (>25% probability)

2E/206T/225G/298V quad combo
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (<10% probability)

225G
potential, but certainly not widespread under current clinical reports (75% probability) with 206T

2E/206S/296H triplet
in low concentration (95% probability)

377K
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (25% probability)

270T
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (7% probability)

261V
potential for appearance in very low count (1 to 3 sequences) (>25% probability)

212 movement
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (7% probability)

208K
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (33% probability)

188/189/190 movement
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (>50% probability)

158E
potential for appearance in very low count (1 to 3 sequences) (>25% probability)

100N
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (>25% probability)

35I
potential for appearance in moderate count (<20% probability)

NA

106I, 248N pairing
potential in very low count (<20% probability)

106I, 248N, 286G triplet
potential for introduction (7% probability until the 8th week of the flashfire)

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