PF11 SNP geographic analysis suggests that the Ukraine cases in the next two weeks may show a very similar genetic pattern to South America in August and the Mediterranean and Adriatic FlightPath in the past 8 weeks.
If the trend toward a higher infectivity of medical personnel continues as reported today of 687 doctors and 1,500 young specialists being ill, we would expect a higher death count in the coming days. Between 0.5% and 1.3% of all doctors in the country are ill (by region). Higher transmissibility is certain.
If a database of 100 sequences were to exist on the Ukraine, accurately cataloging a cross-reference of regions over 14 days of recent death and recovery cases, including major cities, rough expectations would indicate:
HA
225E
in moderate concentration (95% probability) with 206T
206T/225E/300S triplet
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (75% probability)
2E/206T/225E/298V quad combo
potential for appearance in very low count (1 to 2 sequences) (>25% probability)
2E/206T/225G/298V quad combo
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (<10% probability)
225G
potential, but certainly not widespread under current clinical reports (75% probability) with 206T
2E/206S/296H triplet
in low concentration (95% probability)
377K
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (25% probability)
270T
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (7% probability)
261V
potential for appearance in very low count (1 to 3 sequences) (>25% probability)
212 movement
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (7% probability)
208K
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (33% probability)
188/189/190 movement
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (>50% probability)
158E
potential for appearance in very low count (1 to 3 sequences) (>25% probability)
100N
potential for introduction (1 sequence) (>25% probability)
35I
potential for appearance in moderate count (<20% probability)
NA
106I, 248N pairing
potential in very low count (<20% probability)
106I, 248N, 286G triplet
potential for introduction (7% probability until the 8th week of the flashfire)