225 Variance Examination in the Ukraine

The delay in sequence publication from the Ukraine flashfire gives us pause, but also allows an opportunity to examine an item that we notably excluded from our expectation set for Eastern Europe.

Cases of hemorrhagic pneumonia are reported across the region and that clinical presentation requires discussion, further data collection and sequence evaluation.  The prominent Pandemic Influenza expert, Dr. Henry Niman, has estimated that the exceptional lung involvement may suggest an RBD revision of D225N.   Many of you will recall Dr. Niman's background in tracking Influenza recombination and his astute prediction of RBD revision G228S in H5N1 during the mid-stage of Avian Influenza's emergence. His independent analysis using a formidable database and proven hueristics arriving at D225N provides a backdrop for us to surface our thinking concerning residue 225. 

Viral behaviour is certainly mediated by a substantially large group of factors that may be at work in the Ukraine today.  Relatively cold winter temperatures, inadequate winter nutrition and, most importantly, the average person's increase in Multiplicity of Exposure during October from a virus simmering since late August in the Ukraine may be interacting in a synergy to affect the equivalency of a strong RBD acquisition such as the Swine D225N.  This cultural, political, environmental and microbiological interplay is well able to create the appearance of a deeper genetic change than has actually occurred.  Like Dr. Niman, we note the strong lung involvement and search for the causality.  The essential cause of that feature is held at question today and, for us, will remain at question.

A RBD SNP is the most plausible explanation; however, a co-variance alone at any one of several amino acid residues from HA 186 to 196, including 190N, may also generate parity to the clinical and epidemiological picture in the Ukraine.  A confounding factor in our equation concerning D225N is the confidence level on the death statistics.  Although little clinical evidence exists correlating or suggesting causality for individual Influenza Flux revisions, in our reverse heuristics, the death count would be greater if 225N were even moderately implicated.  We know that this facet of the statistics, deaths, cannot be fairly evaluated at this time.  174 Deaths from 50K Hospitalisations is either an aberration or a fabrication. 

Time may provide the answer.  All expository models work in varying degrees when given imprecise inputs.  For our models, the death statistics are integral to the logic engine concerning RBD and Cleavage Area revisions.   Though multiple backgrounds are certainly available to accept 225N in the Ukraine (having patterns reminiscient of Brasil), the complement of factors required for our research team is incomplete.  Solid outputs may not be inferred in this region of the world, so we have determined to wait on noting a high potential for 225N until the data points are available under a higher confidence.  Should 225N be announced before the death statistics are validated, we will applaud Dr. Niman again for his stellar prescience. 

Tuning a model to the observed evidence is the hallmark of science.  Measuring what we do know is fine, but aggresively excluding what we don't know will velocitise our outcomes.  The truth is in the sequences. 

May we look at some please?

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