Around the World in 80 Days on a Genetic Background that Leaves 1,000 Dead in the Ukraine

I sometimes wonder if we are not 20,000 leagues under the sea?  Non?

Data is data. Data transformed becomes information. Information may then feed decision-making.  Da?

When life and death are on the line, transforming that data into information becomes critical and high priority?  Nein?

Today, the nation of the Ukraine officially registered more than 1,000 deaths from influenza viral strains. Though the daily fatality rate is not accelerating, the base rate is holding steady, in general. We expected a mid-month attainment of this fatality level based on the slight acceleration noted previously. The flattening of the daily rate brings the Ukraine death total to 1,005 on the 2010-01-19 report, two days beyond our expectation of 2010-01-17.  The Ukraine reached a fatality total in 80 days that took 175 days in the United States, a country with 6 times the population count.

In the past 80 days, five events have coincided on this small planet:
  • 1,005 citizens are on report as "swine flu" fatalities in the Ukraine.
  • 71 sequences from 11 countries (increasing daily) are documented with a genetic background similar to those fatal cases.
  • 225G has elevated from "no big mutations" to a biased, but documented 50% fatality rate (26 Deaths/52 Sequences).
  • 225G has elevated from "spontaneous" to a very high potential as a transmissible genotype.
  • 225G on LvivN6, a fatal case on the related background, is associated with a vaccine escape event.
Data that occur in similar space and time must be interpreted to determine where on the prism the light will refract, from purely coincidental to perfectly causal.  Simply labeling an item of new data as "no big mutations" and "spontaneous" without examination is careless at best and ruthless at worst.  A subjective statement made under the banner of science is certainly permissible as an educated guess, a hypothesis.  But a hypothesis must be followed by an honest gathering of data, an increasing sample size, the examination against a template and a validation of outcome.

Expectations are yet higher for a panel of experts.  Those steps and more are required prior to making ongoing comments concerning life and death. 

We are awaiting cross-reactivity results for LvivN2, TernopilN10 and TernopilN11.  We are watching for lung sample sequences from a cross section of deaths from the beginning of the pandemic to today.

Have the scholars willingly submerged themselves as a bloc of scientists so far under the sea with so little light that they cannot see the information that is forming directly in front of their eyes?  Press releases come from Public Relations personnel sitting comfortably in the Nautilus, some of whom may have long ago "graduated" from the ranks of the working scientist.  Information comes from the bench.  Let's provide the world with valid information for valid decision-making before this pandemic surges. 

If not, we may find a public unprepared because the leading minds are content to have baptised themselves under the waves of ambiguity, a rank situation allowed only when data is obfuscated and knowledge is withheld.  Who will come to the surface before another 80 days passes and leaves us with 1,000 more deaths?

Certain sub-clades within ΣPF11 are conserving particular genetic features while attaining additional swine inclusions.  That much is certain.  One of those sub-clades is forming as a potential precursor to Receptor Binding Domain polymorphisms like 225G that are associated with fatalities.  Where are the recent sequences from the Ukraine and surrounding countries?

Will we drive for actionable answers?  Or will we patiently wait and count the expirations . . .

Please visit GeneWurx.com for insight into the latest published studies.