The facts speak for themselves.
On Monday, 2010-08-09, more than 4,000 citizens were placed on TamiFlu treatment in the city of Pune, India. 83 deaths were recorded from pre-post-pandemic influenza for the prior 7 days in India.
For the country of India, the weekly average confirmed Influenza death count over the past 14 months is slightly above 30 deaths per week. The fatality count from the past week of 83 is 2.7 times the average rate, a substantial acceleration. The Case Fatality Rate varies from 8.8% to 12.1% in the city/district based on the source of data and date bounding. Roughly 1 in 10 people with a confirmed influenza test die in India.
More than 75% of the deaths are in the 20-49 year old age bracket according to the raw data we have been able to reference, with reports from others as low as 70%. Years of Life Lost calculations defy all "normal" influenza trends. Traditional influenza has a CFR of less than half a percent and more than 98% of that half percent are over 65 or under 2 years old. These numbers from India in 2010 are not suggestive of a post-pandemic status.
Perhaps we should all just re-base now that we have read the press releases and settle ourselves into this post-pandemic era.
Step 1. We could call 83 deaths per week the new "normal" and post that idea as the rate for "seasonal" influenza. Our forms and percentages will then be quite less concerning to the public. Then we could take a note from the public health textbooks and "estimate using the most advanced models" a normal CFR and game the model variables until we evaluate to the current 8.8% CFR of India.
Step 2. Combine the power of the press with the power of the "expert" credential, even perhaps a committee of experts? In a few pen strokes and an hour here and there behind a microphone, the public would be assuaged and all could return to "business as usual".
Or we could hear the public whose health is suffering, read the data and then tell the truth.
- 4,000 on TamiFlu treatment in one day in one city
- 83 confirmed deaths in one week across India
- Post-Pandemic
Though we'd like to see the sequences from these fatal cases that are currently accelerating throughout India, a review of the data on file will allow insight into the building / budding process of a pandemic virus into and out of a monsoon climate. An array of FlightPaths may be detected that led to Hydra strains downstream in time. We are under no uncertainty that the viral reservoir will follow a similar route this year.
India, last year, was a testing field for PF11. In a nutshell, the sub-continent had a depth of uptake from Asia and North America that transformed and promoted to Europe and then returned to the United States. That pathway is a generalisation / characterisation and is not comprehensive. Suspicions do lead to a repeat of last year.
Has, perhaps, the 225G on the HA and the 275Y on the NA become more substantial in India after travelling through the world? Is HA 225N playing a role in the more rapid expirations, while cross-linked 225G causes the lingering 3-5 day, ICU-bound feats of ultimate exhaustion? Is a deep, immune escape Hydra carrying HA 165N and 230I at work in the districts showing a 20-29% Case Fatality Rate?
We watch as vaccinated doctors are admitted to critical care wards, as hospitals with advanced experience and materials lose patients daily to Influenza, even upon using immediate TamiFlu blanketing. Reports of fatalities associated with caregivers, including doctors, are demonstrated in multiple geographies.
Review the sequences that have been made available. See the truth.
. . . . India3725_2010_04_03 (
. . . . . . . . 117T,
. . . . . . . . syn167S,
. . . . . . . . 186P,
. . . . . . . . syn474C,
. . . . . . . . syn526S [Malmoe2_2010_05_07 with 89G])
. . . . IndiaPune10278_2009_09 (
. . . . . . . . syn48R [Norway1359_2009_05_16,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . UkrZakarpatska830_2009_11_12_f, et al],
. . . . . . . . syn131S [Russia, Afghan, Kenya,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . NY6943_2009_12_07_xL,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Wisconsin, California,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Nicaragua, Greece],
. . . . . . . . 206T,
. . . . . . . . 225G,
. . . . . . . . syn413K [H9N2],
. . . . . . . . 454N [H7N3, H7N7, H9N2]
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . [IndiaPune9355_2009_08 with 225G,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . IndiaBlore236_2009_06_xL with 226R,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . SouthCarolina18_2009_09_16_VxX,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . FL_Pen210_2009_11_10],
. . . . . . . . 550T [Unique to India])
. . . . IndiaPune10604_2009_09 (
. . . . . . . . syn2N [UkrSumy797_2009_11_13_f,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . MongoliaJP5756_2009_10_15,
. . . . . . . .. . . . . SingON2416_2009_12_15],
. . . . . . . . syn50V [TexasJMS391_2009_12_23,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . TexasJMS413_2009_02_03,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . SouthCarolina02E3_2010_03_05],
. . . . . . . . syn178V (GTt) [NewHampshire02E3_2010_02_19 (GTa)],
. . . . . . . . 206S,
. . . . . . . . 296H,
. . . . . . . . syn348V [Yaroslavl_CHMV_2009_11_10_f with 225G,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Yakutsk_EAV_2009_11_18,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . BZ_SaoPaulo53823_2009_08_01_f,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Eng662_2009_08],
. . . . . . . . syn485G [Nebraska 01_2010_01_28,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Orenburg2974_2009_11_16_xL,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . NagasakiHA10_22_2010_03_01])
. . . . IndiaDelhi3704_2009_09 (
. . . . . . . . syn44L,
. . . . . . . . syn106E,
. . . . . . . . syn125S,
. . . . . . . . syn159N,
. . . . . . . . 206T,
. . . . . . . . syn297N,
. . . . . . . . syn413K)
. . . . IndiaNsk10348_2009_09 (
. . . . . . . . #12E,
. . . . . . . . syn33V,
. . . . . . . . 206S,
. . . . . . . . 225G,
. . . . . . . . 296H,
. . . . . . . . syn406R,
. . . . . . . . syn439D)
. . . . IndiaJalna9436_2009_08_30 (
. . . . . . . . 8V [Yaroslavl_KMP_2009_08_25,
. . . . . . . . . . NY7216_2009_12_21 with 225G,
. . . . . . . . . . Utah32_2009_10_14],
. . . . . . . . syn147F [H3N8 Avian, H4, H5, H6, H11],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . [Yaroslavl_KMP_2009_08_25,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . IndiaPune21115_2009_12,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Athens943_2009_06_12,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . CalifVRDL99_2009_11_05,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Texas44301765_2009_08_30],
. . . . . . . . syn210S,
. . . . . . . . 226R)
. . . . IndiaDelhi3610_2009_08 (
. . . . . . . . syn125S,
. . . . . . . . 157E,
. . . . . . . . 206T,
. . . . . . . . syn294P,
. . . . . . . . syn464G)
. . . . IndiaMum9312_2009_08 (
. . . . . . . . 208K,
. . . . . . . . 225G,
. . . . . . . . syn385V)
. . . . IndiaPune6196_2009_08 (
. . . . . . . . #12E,
. . . . . . . . syn2N [UkrSumy797_2009_11_13_f,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . MongoliaJP5756_2009_10_15,
. . . . . . . .. . . . . SingON2416_2009_12_15],
. . . . . . . . syn152I,
. . . . . . . . 206S,
. . . . . . . . 296H,
. . . . . . . . syn300P (CCt) [H5N1, H6N1, H7N3, H7N7],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [Virginia24_2009_06_03 (CCt),
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . NY0352_2009_12_27 (CCt),
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . SingON2416_2009_12_15 (CCa),
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Vietnam2043_2009_12_01_TmX (CCa),
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . HunanFur129_2010_01_13 (CCa),
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Slovenia5613_2009_12 (CCa),
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Minnesota40_2009_11_19 (CCa) w syn252V],
. . . . . . . . 342R,
. . . . . . . . syn348V [Yaroslavl_CHMV_2009_11_10_f with 225G,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Yakutsk_EAV_2009_11_18,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . BZ_SaoPaulo53823_2009_08_01_f,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Eng662_2009_08],
. . . . . . . . syn355H [H2, H5N1, H6N1],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . [MoscowOb_ZNF_2009_11_24_xL_f,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . MoscowOb_STV_2009_11_09_f with 225N,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ivanovo_STV1_2009_11_21 with 225G,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . WiscD0589_2009_06_03])
. . . . IndiaPune9355_2009_08 (
. . . . . . . . #10T,
. . . . . . . . syn#4Y [GermanyBY74_2009 with 225G & 226R,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . FL_Pensacola40_2009_11_09],
. . . . . . . . 206T,
. . . . . . . . 225G,
. . . . . . . . syn372Q [H2, H3N8, H4, H5, H6, H7N3, H7N7, H9N2, H11]
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . [IndiaBlore236_2009_06_xL with 226R,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ulyanovsk_SHTA_2009_10_31_f_225N,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Orenburg2974_2009_11_16_xL,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Russia fatal extensive,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . swIowa35572_2009_12_16,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . NagasakiHA10_22_2010_03_01],
. . . . . . . . 373K,
. . . . . . . . syn413K [H9N2],
. . . . . . . . 454N [H7N3, H7N7, H9N2]
. . . . . . . . . . . . . [IndiaBlore236_2009_06 with 226R,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . SouthCarolina18_2009_09_16_VxX,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . FL_Pen210_2009_11_10],
. . . . . . . . 550T [Unique to India])
. . . . IndiaDhule9433_2009_08 (
. . . . . . . . #12E,
. . . . . . . . syn2N [UkrSumy797_2009_11_13_f,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . MongoliaJP5756_2009_10_15,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . SingON2416_2009_12_15,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . IndiaPune10604_2009_09, et al],
. . . . . . . . syn152I,
. . . . . . . . 176I,
. . . . . . . . 205W,
. . . . . . . . 206S,
. . . . . . . . 252L (cTG) [Maryland03_2010_01_13 (tTG),
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Guangdong2361_2009_11_25 (tTG)],
. . . . . . . . 296H,
. . . . . . . . syn348V [Yaroslavl_CHMV_2009_11_10_f with 225G,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Yakutsk_EAV_2009_11_18,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . BZ_SaoPaulo53823_2009_08_01_f,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Eng662_2009_08],
. . . . . . . . syn386I [1918, Unique to PF11])
. . . . IndiaBlore310_2009_07 (
. . . . . . . . syn105R,
. . . . . . . . syn112S,
. . . . . . . . 206T,
. . . . . . . . syn477T)
. . . . IndiaPune807_2009_07 (
. . . . . . . . #12E,
. . . . . . . . syn2N [UkrSumy797_2009_11_13_f ,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . MongoliaJP5756_2009_10_15,
. . . . . . . .. . . . . SingON2416_2009_12_15],
. . . . . . . . 100Q [Unique to PF11],
. . . . . . . . syn104L [CalifVRDL132_2009_12_30,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Texas45122538_2009_09_12,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . WiscD0410_2009_09_24,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . WiscD1355_2009_09_21],
. . . . . . . . 206S,
. . . . . . . . 296H,
. . . . . . . . syn348V [Yaroslavl_CHMV_2009_11_10_f with 225G,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Yakutsk_EAV_2009_11_18,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . BZ_SaoPaulo53823_2009_08_01_f,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Eng662_2009_08],
. . . . . . . . 461E [Unique to PF11])
. . . . IndiaBlore236_2009_06_xL (
. . . . . . . . 226R,
. . . . . . . . syn372Q [H2, H3N8, H4, H5, H6, H7N3, H7N7, H9N2, H11]
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . [IndiaPune9355_2009_08 with 225G,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ulyanovsk_SHTA_2009_10_31_f_225N,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Orenburg2974_2009_11_16_xL,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Russia fatal extensive,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . swIowa35572_2009_12_16,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . NagasakiHA10_22_2010_03_01]),
. . . . . . . . syn413K [H9N2],
. . . . . . . . 454N [H7N3, H7N7, H9N2]
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . [IndiaPune9355_2009_08 with 225G,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . SouthCarolina18_2009_09_16_VxX,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . FL_Pen210_2009_11_10],
. . . . . . . . 550T [Unique to India])
. . . . IndiaHyderabad51_2009_05 (
. . . . . . . . 1T,
. . . . . . . . syn74S [swNC13598_2010_03_09_xL_f
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 15 HA + 4 NA revisions],
. . . . . . . . syn144A (GCc) [Rome632_2009_11_23 (GCg)],
. . . . . . . . 206S)
. . . . equineIndiaAhmedabad1_2009_04_26 (H3N8) (
. . . . . . . . syn211K [H3N8],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . [MXinDRE50617_2009_11_01 with 225G,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Niedersachsen330_2009_07_20],
. . . . . . . . et al)
. . . . equineIndiaKatraJammu7_2008_06 (H3N8) (
. . . . . . . . syn211K [H3N8],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . [MXinDRE50617_2009_11_01 with 225G,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Niedersachsen330_2009_07_20],
. . . . . . . . et al)
Please refer to additional studies for further genetic analyses, including the survey on amino acid revisions potentially related to Vaccine Escape. A hyper-morphic, TamiFlu-resistant sequence from the state of Washington in Spring 2010 has recently been profiled with similar zoonotic influences.
This analysis was fueled by baingan bharta and funded with contributions from concerned families, including HOD, BMS, MJV and CSB.
