For those who are following the prediction on February 25, 2010, the pandemic reservoir now shows multiple instances of multiple encodings for 230I.
The 230I bearing sequences meeting the prediction are documented in the detailed discussion on Vaccine Escape that demonstrates a 100% change rate in the pandemic influenza (pH1N1) reservoir at the critical HA genetics range between amino acid positions 186 and 248. 87% of the amino acid positions have notated revisions.
Expectations for the M230I polymorphism, that first came to our notice for zoonotic concern on the H5N1 human fatality cluster, have now been revised based on the most current public data.
- 45% probability in Arizona of HA 230I in PF11 RBS within 60 days.
- 75% probability in Arizona of HA 230I in PF11 RBS within 210 days.
- 75% probability of HA 230I in PF11 RBS within 90 days in one of:
- Arizona, Utah, Nevada
- New York
- Wisconsin (spread)
- Minnesota (spread)
- Japan (spread)
- 87% probability of HA 230I in PF11 RBS within 210 days in one of:
- 5% or less probability of HA 230I within 60 days of conserving across PF11.
- 7% probability of HA 230I within 210 days of conserving on one or more Hydrae.
The following geographies show potential to acquire the HA polymorphism in an anti-viral over-usage climate. Anti-viral resistance from the NA H275Y revision is not the only genetic concern with over-usage. We suggest that the rate of adoption will vary by penetration percentage of anti-viral implementation techniques geared toward sub-clinical symptomology and pre-emptively medicating undiagnosed contacts ("blanket") with Neuraminidase Inhibitors.
- 35% to 50% probability of HA 230I in PF11 RBS within 90 days in one of:
- South Carolina
- North Carolina
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